As what Warrent Buffett said, "Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful"
Although semi-conductor is a cyclical industry, I do not believe that the fundamentals will change overnight.
CEO Andy Luong and AMAT sold their shares, depressing UMS holdings stock price. It hit a low of 0.545 on 11th June. AMAT decreased their stakes to less than 5% which means that in future, market will not need to be notified when they sell more of their shares. CEO Andy Luong decreased his stakes from 27.81% to 20.25% (Source). I am not too afraid of this because he has been a consistent seller. The last time he sold 7m UMS shares in the period of March and April, UMS share price gradually increase bit by bit.
Nobody knows the true reason why AMAT and CEO Andy Luong are selling their shares. Of cause, it is compelling and scary that the 2 biggest stakeholders are selling away their shares. Only time will tell. I may be catching a falling knife. But as for now, I am remaining confident that the fundamentals are still in good shape :)
Cheers!
Little Boy
Little Boy,
ReplyDeleteI guess that's the best way to learn - having skin in the game to test out your convictions.
With experience, we will discover the "nuances" or "xin fa" to those wise sayings we read from books.
My own interpretation of Buffet's quote:
Be greedy when RETAIL is selling.
Be fearful when INSIDER is selling.
Especially when the insider is the biggest customer of UMS ;)
When young, try out all the theories and find which of them applies to you.
Takes notes of your reflections!
Hi SMOL,
DeleteYup, I may be catching a falling knife like what I mentioned, but only time will tell.
Not to worry, I only buy in a small portion. I didn't whack all my war chest on it.
Cheers!
youth is a margin of safety; one can afford to make as many mistakes and learning from them
Deleteseniors,.... sigh .....
Hi MoneyHoney,
DeleteYeah, time is on my side :)
Making mistake is alright, but making the same mistake over again and not learning from it then is a problem.
Cheers!
Good courage! As the saying goes "no pain, no gain"!
ReplyDeleteHi Richard,
DeleteNo pain no gain.
High risk, high gain. This may be a wrong call for me, but I'm certainly confident of UMS fundamentals.
Cheers!
You are aware that there contract with AMAT which account for 80% of rev is up for renewal in 2017 right?
ReplyDeleteThe two gurus of UMS, nick and Boon of valuebuddies, vested at Pre- bonus price of below 40 cents, they have a high MOS even at current price, and Nick is reducing his stake.
Hi SillyInvestor,
DeleteYes, to be exact 90% of UMS revenue comes from AMAT.
Yup, like I mentioned, I may be wrong to buy into UMS. Nobody truly knows what is the real reason for the selling other than insiders. We have our own judgment to make :)
Cheers!
Would have to agree on the point of vulnerability of UMS given how AMAT is their only client and how Nick and Boon are the gurus with regards to UMS. However, sometimes we got to make our own mistakes, and accept whatever consequences our decisions may bring. That said, I too feel that I should add more UMS stocks to my current holdings. However, I must say that I have bought the stock at 50c before the pre-bonus, hence my larger MOS as well.
DeleteHi VE,
DeleteGiven how much UMS is reliant on AMAT and how AMAT is disposing their stakes. It gives a certain degree of panic and shock. Until I see that the fundamentals have change for the worst, I will park my cash somewhere else.
Nice buy in. You got in exactly one year ago?
Cheers!
Slight less than a year..remember it was almost nearing the end of my summer holidays.
DeleteIt is not always about the price but the decision to invest into a good company is paramount.
ReplyDeleteHi Money Honey,
DeleteYeah, it's true. But different people have different ways of investing :)
Cheers!
Nice blog post regarding the stock prices of Ums holdings. But I want some instant SGX Exchange market news.
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ReplyDelete